动态跟踪的实时校正TANK模型在河系预报中的应用

Tank model integrated with real-time calibrating method and its application in river system forecasting scheme

水文现象受到气候因素和自然地理条件的综合作用而发生变化.现有模拟水文现象的水文模型种类较多,模型结构也千差万别,一个合理、完善、实用的水文模型一般模拟精度都能达到80%~90%,然而,想继续提高模拟精度就很困难了,这部分模拟精度的提高已经与模型本身的结构和细节关系较小,这是一般性水文规律与特殊现象之间的矛盾.通过传统预报模型TANK模型、马斯京根分段连续演算模型,建立了单位流域演算、单一河段演算、"先演后合"和"先合后演"4种预报方案的结合,形成了预见期达24 h的河系预报方案,并加入动态跟踪的实时校正模型,不仅提高了各单一方案的预报精度,而且大幅度提高了河系预报方案的总体精度.

Change of hydrological phenomenon is the result of the synthetic effect of climatic factor and physiographic condition.Many hydrological models have been built and the model structure is different from each other. Generally,the simulation accuracy of a reasonable,perfect and practical hydrological model can reach 80% ~ 90%. However,improving the accuracy continually is a tough task because a better precision that is wanted is not closely related with the model structure,which is usually referred to as the contradiction between the general hydrology laws and special hydrological phenomenon. This paper builds four flood forecasting schemes consisting of watershed unit routing,single river routing,‘routing first’and ‘routing later’based on the Muskingum in segmentation flood routing model and the water tank model. A river system forecasting scheme with a prediction time of 24 h integrated with the real-time calibrating model has been set up to improve the forecast accuracy of each single scheme and river system scheme.