基于应急案例的情景决策支持方法研究

Research on Emergency Decision-Making Support Method for Scenario Response Based on Emergency Cases

为满足突发事件"情景-应对"的需要,提供具体、可实施的应急决策方案,提升决策的科学性,提出了一种基于应急案例的情景决策支持方法。首先,根据突发事件情景演变的特点,提出突发事件的情景表示方法,将应急决策方案引入情景表示中。然后,在情景表示的基础上进行情景检索,获取相似情景中的应急决策方案,将其进一步分解为承灾体的应急措施向量。依据承灾体的应急措施向量在相似情景中实施的效果,从损益值、后续影响两方面对承灾体的应急措施向量进行评价并排序,依据排序结果组成当前情景的应急决策方案,为应急情景决策提供具体的支持。最后,通过实例验证了该方法的可行性。

To meet the needs of emergency ＂scenario-response＂, provide support for oriented scenario decision- making from aspect of the specific, implementable emergency decision alternatives, enhance the science of decision-making, the paper proposes an emergency scenario decision-making support method based on emergency cases. According to the characteristics of emergency scenario revolution, we put forward the emergency＇ s scenar- io representation method, introduce the emergency decision-making scheme into the scenario representation. Then we retrieve the similar scenario from emergency cases based On scenario representation, get the emergency decision-making schemes from the similar scenarios, and divide the emergency decision-making scheme into haz- ard bearing body＇ s emergency measure vectors. We evaluate the emergency measure vectors from the aspects of income and subsequent impact. We rank the collection of emergency measure vectors and compose the decision- making scheme according to the evaluation results to support the scenario decision-making. Finally, we prove the feasibility of method through an example.