房价变化的驱动因素、因果关系与约束条件

On Driving Factors,Causality and Constraints of Housing Price Changes

依据国家统计局、中国社科院、英国自然出版集团、《价值线》数据中心的数据对房价变化分析,认为房价全面性上涨有可能动摇金融体系的基础,进而对国民经济和社会各个方面产生负面影响;本轮房价上涨中,人口净流入量、货币超发、动物精神、因城施策等为主要驱动因素;钻石体系、产业集群程度、产业结构与前景、劳动生产率与收入水平高低、人口聚集、动物精神和房地产需求增减,形成了房价涨跌的条件组合,其中房地产需求增减必不可少;房价涨跌受制于具体城市的经济发展水平、楼市供需关系和公共政策目标,三者相互影响,分别或共同发挥作用。

Based on the data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Nature Publishing Group and the value line, this paper studies the driving factors, causality and constraints of the price changes. The basic conclusions are as follows ： overall prices may shake up the financial system, thus having a negative impact on national economic and social aspects; driving factors of the current round of price increases mainly include the net inflow of population quantity, super currency, animal spirits, and the policies applied by the city; the relationships among the price rise, degree of industrial clusters, diamond system, structure and prospects, industry labor productivity level, income level, population and the demand for real estate are the combined conditions for the price rise, where the demand for real estate is essential to price rise, where the fall and rise of housing prices are subject to the specific level of economic development of the city, the supply and demand in the property market and the regulation of policy objectives, the three influencing each other and playing a separate or joint role in this regard.