风险偏好与金融周期:一个简明的分析框架

Risk Appetite and Financial Cycle:A Concise Analytical Framework

均衡联立模型以风险偏好、信贷约束与资产价格为核心,阐释了金融周期的运行机制。通过区分经济正常运行期、过度繁荣期和深度衰退期三种不同环境下信贷供求双方的主导地位,有效结合了凯恩斯主义的需求决定论与新古典宏观经济理论的供给决定论;完整阐释了各个经济运行阶段内金融变量对波动趋势的交互放大作用;打破了传统凯恩斯经济周期理论缺失金融摩擦的桎梏;凸显了风险偏好对金融因素顺周期波动的重要传导作用。目前,中国正处于金融周期与经济周期的双重叠加下行阶段,我国政府在制定宏观经济政策时,不仅需要考虑实体经济增速,更要防范过度刺激政策所引发的金融失衡风险。

In this paper we construct a balanced simuhaneous model which explains the mechanism of financial cycle with risk preference, credit constraint and asset price as the core. By distinguishing the dominance of credit supply and demand in three different environments： the normal operation period, the over - boom period and the deep recession period, the model effectively combines the supply determinism of Keynesian demand determinism and neoclassical maeroeconomic theory. The model comprehensively explains the mutual amplification of the finan- cial variables to the fluctuation trend in the various economic operation stages, breaks the shackles of the lack of financial friction in the traditional Keynesian economic cycle theory, and highlights the important conduction of the risk preference to the financial factors＇pro - cyclical fluctuation. Therefore, Therefore, at this stage in which China is in the financial cycle and the economic cycle of the superposition of the downstream phase, China＇ s authorities in the formulation of macroeconomic policies, not only need to consider the real economic growth, but also to prevent over- stimulus policies caused by the risk of financial imbalances.