网络经济环境下企业网络风险传播的SIR模型及其仿真

SIR Model and its Simulation of Risk Transmission for Enterprise Network under the Network Economic Environment

在分析网络经济环境下风险更具传导性的基础上,选择企业网络为研究对象,考虑到网络各个结点由于外部交易信息的不确定和内部资金、技术、人力等因素相互影响所导致的危机在网络中的传播行为,推导出企业网络风险传播的SIR模型,并运用系统动力学模型对传播过程进行仿真分析。研究表明:当网络中的结点出现故障时,风险在网络中迅速传播,与其利益相关的企业会迅速受到影响,网络内企业表现出一定的脆弱性。但随着企业自我调节意识和改善能力的不断提高,网络整体的风险感染力呈下降趋势,经过一系列消化、吸收、演变,网络又重新进入一个新的状态。

On the analysis of the risk under the network economic environment, on the basis of more conductive to choose enterprise network as the research object, considering the network each node trading information uncertainty of the external and internal factors such as capital, technology, human interaction behavior caused by the crisis in the network transmission, risk enterprise network transmission of the SIR model is deduced, and using the system dynamics model to simulate the propagation process simulation analysis. Research shows that： when the network node failure, the risk spread rapidly in the network, with its corporate stakeholders would quickly affected, enterprises in the network show some vulnerability. But with the increasing of pressure resistance ability of the enterprise, the network＇ s overall risk influence is on the decline, through a series of digestion, absorption, evolution, network again into a new state.