2017年:俄罗斯经济能否走出危机

Year 2017:Will Russia's Economic Crisis Be Over?

2014年乌克兰危机后,欧美制裁、油价下跌、卢布贬值,俄罗斯经济内外交困深陷危机。两年多来,俄罗斯在危机中表现出前所未有的抗打压能力和适应能力。通过实施反危机计划,俄罗斯经济呈现企稳迹象,很多经济指标出现好转。2016年除资本净流出大幅减少外,通货膨胀明显缓解,上半年工业整体上停止衰退,股市交易量明显上升,目前俄财政收入的2/3来自非石油天然气领域,经济结构也得以优化,并通过浮动的卢布汇率获得竞争优势。预计2016年第三季度俄国内生产总值环比增长0.4%,第四季度环比增长0.5%。俄央行认为,俄罗斯经济衰退的局面已经结束,今后一个时期俄经济将迎来缓慢增长。中国与俄罗斯是全面战略协作伙伴,俄罗斯经济未来走势直接影响中国与俄罗斯的投资合作思路和贸易方式。本刊编辑部特邀请国内外专家学者参加讨论。探讨俄罗斯经济危机的深层原因,俄罗斯经济是否已经真正企稳?俄罗斯经济走出危机的先决条件是什么?俄罗斯经济欲摆脱危机还面临哪些挑战?2017年俄罗斯能否走出危机?中俄经贸合作如何作出相应调整?

Russia's economy has been in deepened crisis as a result ofEU-US sanctions,fall in oil price,and the depreciation of Ruble since the outbreak of Ukraine Crisis in 2014. Russia's resistibility and adaptability to external pressure was unprecedentedly impressive. By anti-crisis measures Russia has stabilized its economy as revealed by an upturn in a series of economic indices of 2016. The Central Bank of Russia holds that the country's economic recession has bottomed out and a slow and steady growth will be the general trend in the future.The prospect of Russia's economy has a direct impact on investment cooperation and trade relations between China and Russia, the strategic cooperative partners. We editorial department invited scholars for a special discussion of topics regarding the underlying causes of Russia's economic crisis,the stability of Russia's economy,the precondition for Russia to get over the crisis,potential challenges for Russia to handle the crisis and the possibility to overcome the crisis in 2017. The discussion also extends to future adjustments to Sino-Russian economic and trade cooperation.