中俄能源合作的新进展及存在的制约因素

New Progress in Sino-Russian Energy Cooperation and the Existing Constraints

在中俄战略协作伙伴关系不断加强、乌克兰危机后美欧对俄能源制裁、国际油价暴跌、国际原油市场由卖方市场转为买方市场以及中国经济"新常态"下油气进口需求持续强劲等新的国际国内背景下,中俄能源合作在原油增供、东线天然气合作、北极亚马尔液化天然气项目和下游炼化领域均取得重大进展和突破。中俄能源合作既存在始终"不变"的战略和影响因素,同时也出现了新的"变化"。中俄能源合作面临价格分歧、互信程度不高、政策沟通和相互认知有限、基础设施有待完善等诸多制约因素。未来深化中俄能源合作,俄政府和能源企业须降低对中国能源市场和企业价格承受力的过高期望,通过风险共担和利润共享实现利益捆绑,扩展两国能源装备领域合作,加强两国能源主管部门的协调与沟通,加强能源研究机构对彼此能源行业和政策的研究。

Remarkable progress in Sino-Russianenergy cooperation has been achieved in multiple areas,e. g.,the increase in crude oil supply,east stream natural gas cooperation,the Yamar LNG project in the Russian Arctic,and downstream refining and chemical engineering,against the backdrop of steady enhancement of Sino-Russian strategic cooperative partnership,EU-US sanctions imposed on Russia's energy sector,steep fall in world oil price,the shift of world crude oil market and China's high demand for foreign energy even under the 'New Normal'. New 'changes'occurred in the cooperation while the 'unchanged ' factors thereto persist. The cooperation is constrained by the difference in pricing,insufficient mutual trust,inadequate policy communication, and imperfect infrastructure construction, etc. Thus Russian government and energy companies need to revise their overestimation of China's energy market and the price acceptability of Chinese companies. It is advisable to devise a mechanism to share risks and profits,extend cooperation in energy equipment manufacturing, deepen collaboration and communication between the authorities,and conduct in-depth research on each other's energy sectors and policies.