影子银行与天津经济发展相关性研究——基于VAR模型的实证分析

Research on Correlation Between Shadow Banking and Economy Development of Tianjin:Based on Empirical Analysis of VAR

以1991—2015年天津经济相关数据为基础,建立VAR模型,并运用Granger因果检验、平稳性检验、脉冲响应函数以及方差分解方法分析了影子银行与天津经济发展之间的关系。结果表明:影子银行与经济发展相互作用、相互影响;前期影子银行对经济发展为促进作用,而后期对经济发展形成了阻碍;影子银行逐渐超过了传统劳动力的因素,在经济发展中扮演着越来越重要的角色。应当加强政府对影子银行的引导,完善影子银行相关法律,同时促进传统金融机构对中小企业的资金支持,从而减小影子银行给市场带来的风险。

Based on the economic data of Tianjin from 1991—2015,using VAR model,Granger causality test,stationary test,impulse response and variance decomposition,we analyzed the relationship between the economic growth of Tianjin and shadow banking.Research shows that shadow banking and the economic growth of Tianjin have interactions.Shadow banking played a positive role in the economic growth of Tianjin early,but later it caused the obstacle to economic development.Shadow banking gradually exceeded the traditional labor factor,played a more important role in the development of the economy.The government should strengthen the guide of shadow banking,consummate relevant laws and promote the traditional financial support to SMEs,so as to reduce the risk of the shadow banking brings to the market.