摩尔多瓦政局动荡原因及走向分析

Reasons for Moldova Political Unrest and Analysis of its Trend

2015年下半年到2016年初,在东欧国家摩尔多瓦出现了不间断的反对派抗议活动,到2016年1月中旬,抗议活动走向高潮,引发了一定程度的社会动荡,也引起国际社会的关注和担忧。摩尔多瓦政局动荡有经济原因——加入欧盟、与欧洲实现一体化的"欧洲梦"的破碎带来的财政困难和民众不满,也有社会分化的内部政治矛盾——在国家发展道路上"罗马尼亚化"、投向西方还是"靠近俄罗斯"的不同选择,在政府总理人选问题上集中体现出来。同时,来自美国与欧盟的西方国家的插手也加剧了其内部矛盾,并使各种矛盾复杂化。作为原苏联的加盟共和国之一,摩尔多瓦的民众抗议活动在组织形式、政治诉求、社会背景等方面与"乌克兰危机"之初的情况既有相似之处,也有原则性不同。就目前情况看,摩尔多瓦的动荡不会演变成一场大规模危机,摩尔多瓦不会成为"第二个乌克兰"。

From the latter half of 2015 to early 2016, consecutive protests of the oppositions broke out in the Eastern European country Moldova. In the middle of January 2016, the protests reached the climax and triggered off social turmoil to some extent and also aroused attention and concern of the international society. There were economic reasons accounting for Moldova＇s political unrest： the shattering of ＂European dream＂ by entry into EU and integration into Europe had brought about fiscal difficulties and the discontent of the general public; and also internal political contradictions of social differentiation： the conflicts of ＂Romanianization＂ and different choice of pro-West or pro-Russia national development path were embodied centrally in government premier candidates. Meanwhile, the interference from US and western EU countries also aggregated its internal contradictions and made these contradictions complicated. The general public protests of Moldova, one of the former Soviet Union republics, bore resemblances to the early stage of ＂Ukraine crisis＂ in the aspects of organization mode, political appeal, and social background, but there were differences of principle. As far as the present situation is concerned, Moldova turmoil will not evolve into a large-scale crisis and Moldova will not become the ＂second Ukraine