美国专家界对俄罗斯的基本战略观体系

Systems of Basic Strategic Views of US Specialists Circle Towards Russia

在美国对俄外交政策讨论中有两种相左立场。其一,把美国外交视为大战略,有大范围、长期的谋划和视野,由军人、情报人员和外交家组成的专家团队加以实施。其二,美国外交的制定派生于短期的内政利益,与选举和这些利益的政治博弈相关,它要求决策具备应对性,而非为了实施大战略。当代美国专家界研究俄罗斯问题的主要观点体系分为怀疑派、危言派、现实派和唯合派四大派系。上述派系的产生历史、演化过程及其辩论互动情况揭示了构成美国政府对俄罗斯基本战略观体系的智库结构及其不同派系阵营的立场,并展示了不同时期美国对俄罗斯外交政策及其未来走向。当前美国专家对俄罗斯观点占主导的是怀疑派和危言派。现实派影响力有限,而唯合派的实际影响力等于零。美国政府换届在即,不能排除这样一种可能,怀疑派和危言派将继续决定美国对俄政策新一轮政治周期,尽管其间现实派的影响力会有一定上升。

Among the discussions of America＇s foreign policy towards Russia, there are two contrary standpoints. One standpoint regards America＇s foreign policy as a grand strategy, with large-scale and long-term planning and horizon, to be implemented by specialist team composed of militaries, intelligence agents and diplomats; the other standpoint is that the formulation of US diplomacy derives from short-term domestic interests, related to elections and political games of these interests. It requires the decisions to be makeshift, not for the implementation of grand strategy. Currently, the view systems of US specialists circle studying Russia issues fall into four categories： skeptics, alarmists, realists, and advocates of cooperation without preconditions. The birth, history, evolution process and interactive debates of above schools of thoughts reveal the structure of the systems of basic strategic views of US government＇s think tank towards Russia and the standpoints of different schools of thoughts; it also displays US foreign policies towards Russia in different periods and the future trends. At present, the two dominant views of US specialists towards Russia are skeptics and alarmists. The influence of the realists is limited and the actual influence of the advocates of unconditional cooperation is almost null. The new administration will take over soon, there is a likelihood that despite the influence of realists may start to grow, the alarmists and skeptics will continue to shape US policy towards Russia through yet another political cycle.