经济“新常态”下产业分类结构性改革研究——以河南省为例

Research on the Industry Classification of the Structural Reform

"十三五"时期是全面建成小康社会的关键决胜阶段,尤其是要解决经济发展方式转变的结构性难题,要突破这一瓶颈,总体来说,就是要在适度扩大社会总需求(总投入)的同时,积极推进经济供给侧(总产出)结构性改革,重点减少低端无效供给,扩大中高端有效供给,着力增加社会公共产品和服务的供给,最终提高全社会最终产品和服务供给的质量和效益,促进全社会供给结构和需求结构均衡,协同促进经济发展。具体来说,就是要在产品(产业)供给结构中对不同行业内部的结构风险予以定量测算,进而为行业分类改革的决策实施提供智力支持。利用金融风险分析CAPM模型对河南省42个产业进行均值—方差分析,利用系统风险这一关键指标将所有产业分为两大阵营,每个阵营提出不同的结构性改革策略,最终实现行业系统性分类改革目标。

＂ much starker choices -and graver consequences -in＂ period is the key to build a well - off society in an all - round way runoff stage, especially to solve the problems of economic develop- ment mode change, to break through this bottleneck, in general, is to moderately expand the social aggregate demand （total） at the same time, actively promote economic supply side （output） structur- al reform, focus on low -end reduced supply, expanding in the high -end effective supply, strive to increase the supply of public products and services, and ultimately improve the quality of the final product and service supply in the whole society and benefits, promote the whole society balanced sup- ply structure and demand structure, promoting economic development. Specifically, from product （in- dustry） is to supply structure of different industries in the internal structure of risk quantitative meas- urement, and provide intellectual support for the decision of industry classification reform. Based on financial risk analysis of CAPM model to mean - variance analysis of 42 industry in our province, u- sing the systematic risk is a critical index all industries can be divided into two camps, each faction put forward different structural reform strategy, finally realizes the industry classification of systemic reform goals.