“十三五”时期中国新型城镇化发展速度研究

Research on the Speed of Chinese New Urbanization in the 13^(th) Five-Year Period

以五年规划为研究视角具体阐述历次五年规划的城镇化建设情况,基于L-Q灰色预测模型对"十三五"时期中国新型城镇化的发展速度进行预测。结果表明:"十三五"时期中国新型城镇化发展势头良好,截至"十三五"末,城镇化率将达到64.26%,提前完成《国家新型城镇化规划(2014—2020年)》制定的目标,并具体分析原因。

After reviewing the urbanization during each Five-Year in the past,this paper forecasts the speed of new urbanization in the 13thFive-Year period by L-Q grey forecast model. The results indicate that the new urbanization in the 13thFive-Year period is a good momentum,and by the end of the 13thFive-Year period,the urbanization rate would be 64. 26%,and the goal scheduled in National New Urbanization Plan（ 2014—2020） will be achieved in advance. Finally,the specific reasons are elaborated.