云南有色金属产业关联程度及影响分析

Analysis of the correlation degree and influence of nonferrous metal industry in Yunnan province

本文基于投入产出分析方法及可计算一般均衡模型,定量分析了云南有色金属产业与其他各个产业的关联程度,并在此基础上模拟了价格波动下该产业对各关联产业的影响程度,确定了云南有色金属产业的关联产业包括电气、机械和器材,电力、热力生产和供应,通用设备等共23个关联产业。有色金属产品价格变动时,受影响最大的分别为电气、机械和器材,电力、热力生产和供应,煤炭采选产品等部门,且影响情况和关联程度的关系较为密切。有色金属产品价格下跌在合理范围内,对经济产生的积极影响随着价格下跌的幅度逐渐增大,但当有色金属产品价格下跌幅度在40%以上时,GDP将受到极大的负面影响;有色金属产品价格上涨对GDP有一定的负面影响,负面影响一定范围内随价格的上涨幅度逐渐增大。

On the basis of the input-output analysis method and the Computable General Equilibrium model,this paper analyzes the correlation degree between Yunnan nonferrous metal industry and other industries.And based upon the analysis,the impact of the industry on the correlative industries has been simulated when price fluctuates,and the altogether 23 correlative industries in terms of electric,machinery,heat production and supply and general equipment have been confirmed.The departments concerning electric,machinery,heat production and supply and coal selecting products are most heavily affected when the non-ferrous metal product price fluctuates.In addition,the impact and the correlation degree are closely related.On the one hand,it is not until the non-ferrous metal product price falls more than 40% does it have a negative impact on the economy.In other words,apositive impact is made when the price falls within 40%,and the impact is basically in proportion to the falling price.On the other hand,the rising of the price has a certain negative effect on GDP,and similarly,the effect is in proportion to the rising price in a certain range.