“一带一路”沿线国家粮食发展潜力分析

Study on Grain Development Potential of “One Belt and One Road” Areas

以小麦、稻谷和玉米三大主粮为例并结合FAOSTAT数据库2013年数据,利用GAEZ v3.0方法测算了"一带一路"沿线国家粮食发展潜力。结果表明:"一带一路"沿线国家中,印度和俄罗斯粮食发展潜力位处前两位,乌克兰、泰国、土耳其、罗马尼亚、伊朗、巴基斯坦、哈萨克斯坦等国也具有较强粮食发展潜力。从总体上看,"一带一路"沿线国家的粮食发展潜力约在3.82~4.10亿吨之间,发展潜力幅度在40.34%~43.29%之间;小麦发展潜力约在1.92~2.18亿吨之间,发展潜力幅度在59.63%~67.62%之间;稻谷发展潜力约在0.88~0.92亿吨之间,发展潜力幅度在19.41%~20.36%之间;玉米发展潜力约在1.00~1.04亿吨之间,发展潜力幅度在58.30%~60.88%之间。

Taking three staple food of wheat,rice and maize as the example and combining with related data in 2013 from FAOSTAT database,this paper uses GAEZ v3.0 method to measure the grain development potential of the one Belt and one Road areas.The result shows that,among countries of the one Belt and one Road areas,grain development potential of India and Russia are among the top two,Ukraine,Thailand,Turkey,Romania,Iran,Pakistan and Kazakhstan are also have strong potential.Taken as a whole,the grain development potential of the one Belt and one Road areas is between 382 million tons and 410 million tons,and the growth range of which is between 40.34% and 43.29%;the wheat development potential is between 192 million tons and 218 million tons,and the growth range of which is between 59.63% and 67.62%;the rice development potential is between 88 million tons and 92 million tons,and the growth range of which is between 19.43% and 20.36%;the maize development potential is between 100 million tons and 104 million tons,and the growth range of which is between 58.30% and 60.88%.