基于动态决策的突发灾害事件多主体多阶段应急协同研究

Research on Multi-object and Multi-stage Emergency and Coordination of Sudden-onset Disaster Event with Based on Dynamic Decision

突发灾害事件的应急救援行动会涉及多个部门多个环节,部门之间和环节之间的非独立关系决定了应急救援方案之间会产生不利于整体救援效果的影响。在考虑部门协同的基础上,建立了多主体多阶段的应急决策模型,采用动态决策的方法进行求解,通过一个算例对燃气火灾事件的应急决策进行了模拟,得出该事件中交管部门、燃气部门和消防部门之间的协同系数矩阵,并得出了各部门在各阶段的最优决策,该算例证明了所建立模型和采用方法的适用性,对实际的应急决策问题具有重要的意义。

Emergency rescue of emergency disaster involves several departments and stages. The non-independent relationship be- tween departments and stages determines the influence between emergency rescue plans which will not conducive to the overall effect of the rescue. Therefore, based on the consideration of the department coordination, the emergency decision model with multiple agents and multiple stages is established, and is solved by the method of dynamic decision. Finally, we simulate the emergency decision mod- el through an example of gas fire incident, and calculate the coordination coefficient matrix between the traffic control department, gas department and fire department, and then we make the optimal decision for all departments in each stage. This simulation proves the applicability of the model and method, which is of great significance to the actual emergency decision problems.