互联网金融对中国商业银行系统性风险的影响——基于SVAR模型的实证研究

The Influence of Internet Finance on the Systematic Risk of Chinese Commercial Banks--Empirical study based on SVAR Model

首先运用主成分分析法测算我国商业银行的系统性风险,接着运用突变分析和SVAR模型等计量方法实证互联网金融对我国商业银行系统性风险的影响。结果表明:互联网金融发展影响商业银行系统性风险的路径为:"互联网金融—商业银行的资产负债结构—商业银行的成本收入比—商业银行的系统性风险",且它对银行系统性风险的影响存在"期限结构效应",即互联网金融在短期内会增加我国银行系统性风险,但从中长期来看,对我国银行系统性风险的影响并不大,两者可作为互利共生的事物共同发展。互联网金融的存在对我国金融改革有很好的倒逼作用,能在一定程度上促进金融监管的创新。

This paper firstly uses the principal component analysis method to calculate the risk of commercial banks in China. Then, this paper empirically studies the impact of Internet finance on the systemic risk of China＇s commercial banks by using mutation analysis, SVAR model and other measurement methods. The results show that the Internet financial development mainly af- fects the bank＇s assets and liabilities structure, and further affects the bank＇s cost to income ratio, and thus commercial bank systematic risk is affected. And its impact on the banking systemic risk exists ＂term structure effect＂, that is, the increase the risk of China＇s banking system, development of Internet finance in the short term will but from a long-term point of view, the impact is not obvious, Internet finance and traditional banking can commonly develop as a symbiotic thing. Fi- nally, this paper analyzes the formation reasons and puts forward the relevant policy recommen- dations. The existence of the Internet finance has very good reversed transmission effect on our financial reform, to optimize China＇s financial industry to a certain extent and promote the innova- tion of financial regulation.