海域生态承载力评价指标体系研究——以南通市为例

Research on marine ecological carrying capacity of indicator: a case in Nantong

本论文首先从海域生态承载力的概念和研究方法入手,借鉴国内外相关研究成果,通过指标的多重共线性分析剔除多余指标保留不重叠的指标,构建了海域生态承载力评价指标体系。在计算承载力过程中对原始数据进行无量纲标准化处理。在指标权重确定的计算过程中运用层次分析法与熵值法相结合的组合权重方法来确定最终权重。在计算过程中,借助yaahp软件来减小人为计算的误差,保证指标权重的科学合理。最后运用状态空间评价模型对南通市所辖海域2009~2014年间的海域生态承载力进行综合评估。研究结果表明:2009~2014年南通市海域生态承载力总体呈现波动式下降趋势,其中2009~2010年间南通市处于良好可载状态,2011~2014年间南通市海域承载力处于基本可载状态。

This article focuses on the concept and research method of Marine ecological carrying capacity, builds the e- valuation index system of ecological carrying capacity by analyzing the multicollinearity indicators, which was overlap of indicators of the standardization of dimensionless processing of raw data by eliminating redundant indicators. Then AHP, entropy and ＂yaahp＂ software were used to calculate the final weight to reduce the error of the artificial calcula- tion to ensure scientific and reasonable index weight. Finally the state space model was used to analyze the marine eco- logical beating capacity. The results show that the Nantong ecological carrying capacity showed a reduce trend of fluc- tuation change ,have a good condition 2009 -2010 ,the basic state 2011 -2013 ,the bad condition 2014.