摘要
新造船的投融资额巨大,回收期长,超级油轮载重吨大于一般船舶,价格更高,风险更大.对新造超级油轮船舶价格和其影响因素二手船价格、期租租金、新船订单与船队规模比率、造船成本和汇率进行协整关系检验,建立向量误差修正模型,进行脉冲响应函数和方差分解分析,分析新造VLCC船舶价格与主要影响因素之间的动态关系.研究结果表明,新造VLCC船舶与其影响因素间存在协整关系,二手船价格对新造船价格产生的影响最大,除汇率外,其他影响因素与新造船价格呈正相关.
The new shipbuilding financing amount is huge with a long payback period. Compared with general ships, VLCC （Very Large Crude Carrier） is greater in deadweight ton, and the price is higher with much more risks. This paper examines the interactions of second-hand ship price, rent, orders for new ships and fleet scale ratio, shipbuilding cost, exchange rate and the VLCC＇s newbuilding price using the ADF test and Cointegration test. With Vector Error Correction Model, implus response analysis and variance decomposition, this paper analyzes the dynamic relations between newbuilding price and related factors. Our findings show that there is a Cointegration relationship between the price of new building VLCC ship and its influence factors. The price of second-hand ship has a significant impact on the price of newbuilding VLCC ship. In addition to the exchange rate, other factors were positively correlated with the price of newbuilding ship.
作者
陈继红
刘雯
杨晨
真虹
罗莉华
于航
黄肖玲
CHEN Ji-hong LIU Wen YANG Chen ZHEN Hong LUO Li-hua YU Hang HUANG Xiao-ling(College of Transport and Communications, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 201306, China Shang International Shipping Institute, Shanghai 200082, China Transportation Management College, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, China)
出处
《数学的实践与认识》
北大核心
2016年第24期69-78,共10页
Mathematics in Practice and Theory
基金
国家自然科学基金(51409157
61304203
71371038)
国家社会科学基金(15BJY069)
上海市科委研究项目(15590501700)
教育部人文社会科学研究项目(14YJC630008)
上海海事大学校基金项目(20130457)
上海市教委科研创新项目(14YZ109)
