SWAT分布式模型在新兴江流域径流模拟中的应用研究

Runoff Simulation of Xinxing River Basin Based on SWAT Model

分布式水文模型是研究变化条件下流域水资源演变规律的有效工具。本文以新兴江流域为研究区域,整合流域下垫面信息与气象数据,基于GIS平台构建了SWAT分布式水文模型。选用腰古站1990-2003年历史月径流资料,对模型进行参数敏感性分析与率定,验证模型在流域的适用性,在此基础上,运用增量情景法,分析气候变化对流域径流产生的影响。结果表明:模型率定期与验证期的总径流相对误差均在±10%以内,Nash-Sutcliffe系数均在0.90以上,总体模拟效果十分理想;降水与气温的变化给流域径流带来不同程度的影响,径流量对降水变化的响应比气温更加敏感。通过径流模拟,SWAT模型可以为变化环境下新兴江流域的水资源规划与管理工作提供有效的参考依据。

Distributed hydrological model is an effective tool to study the regulation of water resources evolvement in the changing environments.Taking Xinxing River Basin as the study area,the distributed hydrological model SWAT was built based on GIS platform by integrating the watershed underlying surface information and weather data.Parameter sensitivity analysis and model calibration were done by using historical runoff data from 1990 to 2003 of Yaogu hydrological station in order to validate the applicability of the model in this basin.On the basis of the calibrated model,the effects of climate change on the runoff was analyzed by using the incremental scenario method.The results show that the relative errors of total runoff are within ±10% and the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients are above 0.90 in both calibration and validation periods,the overall simulation accuracy of SWAT model is pretty good;The changes of precipitation and air temperature have different effects on runoff of the basin,and the response of runoff to precipitation change is more sensitive than that of air temperature.Through runoff simulation,SWAT model can provide an effective reference for water resources planning and management of the Xinxing River Basin in the changing environments.