基于双向期权契约的随机产出季节性产品供应链生产与订购策略

Production and Procurement Strategies for Seasonal Product Supply Chain under Yield Uncertainty with Bi-directional Option Contracts

以市场需求与生产制造环节存在双重随机不确定性的季节性产品供应链为研究对象,建立了双向期权契约机制下供应链上下游之间的博弈决策模型,分别针对制造商加急生产成本较低和较高两种不同情形,研究了零售商的最优订购策略与制造商的最佳生产计划;并通过详细的数值算例揭示了终端市场需求的随机波动性、成品产出的不确定性以及双向期权契约参数的变化对供应链上下游运作策略及运作绩效的影响。研究结果为季节性产品供应链系统中的产品采购与生产计划安排提供了参考。

This paper develops a game decision-making model of production and procurement with bidirectional option contract in a decentralized supply chain consisting of one manufacturer and one retailer. The manufacturer distributes one kind of seasonal product via the retailer to the end market, the end market＇s demand is random, and the manufacturer＇s production yield is stochastic. We study the retailer＇s optimal ordering policy and the manufacturer＇s optimal production strategy in two different situations （that is, the emergency production cost is low or high） respectively. The effects of the demand＇s uncertainty, the production yield＇s volatility, and the price parameters of bidirectional option contract on the optimal operational strategies and performances of all the participants are also analyzed. These results will be helpful for the manufacturers and retailers in the supply chain of seasonal products to make production scheduling strategy and procurement policy feasibly and scientifically.