基于支持向量机的某地区电网短期电力负荷预测

Short-Term Load Forecasting of a Regional Power Grid Based on Support Vector Machine

负荷预测是电力系统安全经济运行的前提。随着电力系统的市场化和能源互联网的研究与发展,高质量的负荷预测显得愈发重要。分析了影响负荷预测的因素,对数据进行收集及挖掘,采用了基于支持向量机负荷预测算法对区域负荷进行短期预测,并进一步开展了针对城区的精细化负荷预测研究。结合某地区案例,对该算法进行验证,结果表明,该算法预测结果优越,相对误差率较小。

Load forecasting is a prerequisite for safe and economical operation of power system. With the market reform of power system and research and development of the energy Internet,high-quality load forecast becomes increasingly im-portant. This paper analyzes the factors that influence the load forecasting,collects and excavates the data,uses the support vector machine load forecasting algorithm to forecast the regi-onal short-term load,and further develops the fine load fore-casting research for the urban area. According to a test of this forecasting algorithm for a case in an urban area,the result shows that the better the forecasting result,the lower the relative rate.