我国财政政策非线性效应研究——基于商品和劳动力市场供求结构的分析

A Study of Non-linear Effects of China's Fiscal Policy:Based on the Analysis of Supply-demand Structure of Both Commodity and Labor Market

选取1953—2013年度数据构建马尔科夫区制转移模型,考察我国财政政策对产出增长的非线性效应。实证结果表明,我国财政政策存在显著的非线性效应:财政政策在1958—1962、1966—1969和1977—1980年等时期具有非凯恩斯效应;在1981—2013年等时期又具有凯恩斯效应。此外本文借鉴缪尔鲍和波茨的数量制约模型,分析认为我国商品市场和劳动力市场均呈现出短缺现象,是非线性效应产生的原因。为使财政政策更加科学合理地发挥作用,认为政府部门应高度重视劳动力市场供求结构的变动。

Using 1953-2013 annual data, this paper constructs a markov regime-switching model to investigate the nonlinear effects of China＇s fiscal policy on output growth. The empirical result shows that fiscal policy appears significant non-linear effects in China：fiscal policy in 1958-1962,1966-1969 and 1977-1980 period has non-Keynesian effects,whereas it has keynesian effects in 1981-2013 period. Besides, learning from Muellbaue and Portes＇ Quantity restriction model, we believe that the shortage of China＇s commodity and labor market may still exist which results in the non-linear effects. We suggest that the government should pay high attention to the supply-demand structure alteration of labor market in order to make fiscal policy playing a more scientific and reasonable role.