分析师“变脸”行为会加剧个股暴跌风险吗?

Do analyst face-changing behaviors intensify crash risks of stocks?

在金融市场上,分析师预测存在"变脸"行为,即分析师往往会根据市场状况的变化发布忽高忽低的预测。本文从迎合行为角度,研究分析师预测的"变脸"行为是否会加剧个股暴跌风险。结果表明:(1)分析师目标价一致预测的"变脸"行为会加剧个股暴跌风险,且熊市更为显著,牛市并不显著;(2)在每股盈利预测上,明星分析师"变脸"行为会加剧个股暴跌风险,且熊市更加显著。非明星分析师"变脸"行为对股价暴跌没有显著影响;(3)公司负债率越高、内控程度越低,明星分析师"变脸"行为对个股暴跌风险的影响就更显著。本文对于深入了解分析师作用,以及如何降低A股个股暴跌风险具有现实指导意义。

In financial markets, securities analysts have obvious face-changing behaviors that securities analysts tend to release fluctuating forecasts according to market situations. From the respect of catering theory, this paper studies whether securities analysts＇ face-changing behaviors can intensify the crash risk of securities. It is found that：（1）Analysts, as a whole, can intensify the crash risk of securities by their consensus of forecasts in securities prices. The relationship is more significant in bear market but not significant in bull market;（2）As for the forecasts for EPS, star analysts＇ face-changing behaviors can intensify the crash risk of securities and the relationship is more significant in bear market. However, non-star analysts＇ face-changing behaviors have no significant positive relationship with crash risk of securities;（3）With the increase of asset-liability ratio and the decrease of the level of internal control, star analysts＇ face-changing behaviors in price and EPS forecasts can affect the crash risk of securities more significantly. This paper not only contributes to the deep understanding of securities analysts＇ roles in financial markets, but also provides helpful references in how to reduce the crash risk of securities in China.