人口抚养比与经常账户平衡:主要发达国家的经验及对中国的启示

A theoretical and empirical research on the cause of financial industrial agglomeration in China

人口抚养比与经常账户余额之间呈现负相关的结论在已有研究中取得了一定共识。本文通过对主要发达国家1980年至2014年间人口抚养比与经常账户余额之间的面板数据检验分析,发现人口抚养比每上升1%,将会显著降低经常账户余额占GDP的比率约1.1%。分开来看,老年抚养比变化对经常账户的影响不显著,而少儿抚养比变化的影响显著为负,且其影响程度约为总抚养比的2倍。由于2012年之后劳动年龄人口比率下降和老龄人口比率的上升,至少未来十五年内中国的人口抚养负担将会持续加重,经常账户余额将会向着顺差减少乃至逆差扩大的方向变化。政府当局的对策可以包括提高劳动参与率和劳动生产率、完善贸易结构、改善金融体系运营效率和提高对外投资收益等。

According to most of previous studies,there is a significant negative correlation between population dependency ratio（PDR） and current account balance（CAB）.In this paper,on the basis of the panel data about main developed countries from1980 to 2014,we test the correlations between CAB and three PDRs,including Aggregate PDR,Children PDR and Elderly PDR.The empirical results indicate that the rise of Aggregate PDR will reduce the ratio of CAB and GDP,the coefficient is-1.1 and significantly negative.Separately,the Elderly PDR variable has not obvious impact on CAB,while Children PDR variable can significantly reduce the ratio of CAB and GDP,and its coefficient double the Aggregate PDR.For China,owing to the decline of labor force population ratio and the rise of elderly population ratio since 2012,China＇s population dependency burden will become heavier and heavier at least in the next fifteen years,and this will worsen China＇s current account balance.The Countermeasures of the Chinese government authority may include raising labor participation ratio and labor productivity,upgrading the trade structure,improving the operational efficiency of the financial system and increasing the level of oversea investment income.