基于CA-MARKOV模型的江苏沿海土地利用变化情景分析

Scenario Analysis of Land Use Change in Jiangsu Coast Based on CA-Markov Model

以江苏沿海为例,基于2000年、2005年、2010年TM影像解译数据,分析了江苏沿海土地利用类型的动态变化,结合转移矩阵和CA-Markov模型,设定了自然发展趋势、生态环境保护管理和城市规划与区域发展3种不同的情景进行模拟预测。结果表明:(1)2000—2010年耕地、草地、林地面积有所减少,其他面积有所增加,2005—2010年城乡居民用地增加1 341.45km^2,耕地减少1 147.65km^2,城镇化发展速度较快,建设用地占用大量生态用地。(2)自然发展趋势情景与生态保护情景相比,林地、草地的面积变化不大,仅城乡居民用地面积多出583.68km^2,说明该情景既保护生态环境也保证城乡发展;生态保护情景下城乡居民用地面积10年间仅增长684.78km^2,说明该情景下生态环境虽然得到保护,但也限制了该区域城镇化发展;城市规划与区域发展情景下城乡居民用地比2010年增加3 963.35km^2,而耕地、林地和草地面积大幅度减少,说明过分强调城市的发展,不仅会导致耕地面积大幅减小,威胁粮食安全,也会对当地的生态系统带来巨大的危害。通过对不同情景的模拟,可为区域土地规划、生态保护以及可持续发展提供决策依据。

Taking Jiangsu coast as study area, the dynamics change degree of land use type was analyzed based on the interpretation data from TM image in 2000, 2005 and 2010. Combining transition matrix and CA-Markov model, three scenarios were proposed, which were natural trend scenario, ecological environmental management scenario and urban planning and regional development scenario. The results showed that： （1） from 2000 to 2010, the areas of farmland, grassland and forestland decreased, while areas of construction land, water body and unused land continued to expand; because of the rapid development of urbanization from 2005 to 2010, a large area of land was needed; during this period, the construction land expanded by 1 314. 45 km^2 while the farmland reduced by 1 147. 65 km^2 ; （2） compared with ecological environmental management scenario, the area of the ecological land changed a little under natural trend scenario though the construction land increased by 583. 68 km^2, indicating that the natural trend scenario could not only protect ecological environment but also ensure urban and rural development; under ecological environmental management scenario, however, the construction land only expanded by 684.78 km^2 in a decade, which was the slowest, indicating that under this scenario the ecological environment could be protected at the cost of the urban and rural development; under the urban planning and regional development scenario, the area of construction land expanded by 3 963. 35 km^2 compared with that of 2010; meanwhile, the farmland, forestland and grassland decreased sharply. In conclusion, with too much attention on urban development, farmland will face the substantial reduction, which will threaten the stability of the grain market, and the local ecosystem will be faced with a huge loss. The simulation results can provide reference for the regional land planning, ecological protection and sustainable development.