人口生育政策变迁与初婚风险——基于CFPS2010年调查数据

Change of Family Planning Policy and Hazard of First Marriage——Data from CFPS 2010

本文运用中国家庭动态跟踪调查(CFPS)2010年数据,建立Cox比例风险模型,分析自新中国成立以来我国生育政策变迁对人口初婚模式的影响。研究发现,20世纪七八十年代的生育政策变迁对当期个体的初婚风险具有重要影响且存在着年龄差异与性别差异,在剔除队列效应后,影响依然存在。在我国,初婚年龄并非"直线"上升的,而是伴随着生育政策的调整发生波动。国家权力和国家政策的介入深刻地影响了我国人口的初婚行为。

In this article, we analyze the impact of fertility policy change on the pattern of first marriage in Chinese population since 1949 by a Cox proportional hazards model. Using data from China Family Panel Studies （CFPS） 2010, we find that the alterations of fertility policy in 1970s and 1980s have strongly influenced the hazard of first marriage of individuals married in that period, and the impact still exists even after controlling the cohort effect. In China, the age of first marriage is not all the way straight up with time, but fluctuated with the adjustments of fertility policy. The intervention of state authority and national policy has deeply carved into the behavior of first marriage in Chinese population.