基于模糊集对分析的引江济太调水效益综合评价

Comprehensive evaluation of benefit of water diversion from Yangtze River to Taihu Lake based on fuzzy set pair analysis

从经济、社会和生态环境3个层面构建引江济太调水效益评价指标体系。考虑到评价标准边界值的模糊性,采用模糊集对分析评价模型评估调水工程对受水区的综合影响等级,并与综合指数法对比;用Cronbach系数α检验指标体系内部一致性可信度,在确定指标权重时,使用博弈论综合赋权法将主观权重(层次分析法)和客观权重(熵值法)集成,得到相对均衡的综合权重。运用上述方法对2014年引江济太调水进行综合评估,两种方法的评估结果都表明引江济太工程给受水区带来较大的正面影响,但模糊集对分析法用模糊联系度描述评价对象和评价标准的确定性和不确定性,能提供相对丰富的信息。

An evaluation indicator system was constructed from the aspects of economic, social, and ecological environments to evaluate the benefit of water diversion from the Yangtze River to Taihu Lake. With consideration of the fuzziness of boundary values of the evaluation criteria, the fuzzy set pair analysis assessment model was used to evaluate the comprehensive impact grade of the water diversion project on the intake area, and the assessment results were compared with those of the comprehensive indicator method. The Cronbach’ sαcoefficient was used to test the internal consistency reliability of the indicator system. To determine the indicator weight, game theory was used to integrate the subjective weight （ the analytical hierarchy process method ） and the objective weight （ the entropy method） . Thus, the relatively balanced comprehensive weight was obtained. With the methods mentioned above, the benefit of water diversion from the Yangtze River to Taihu Lake in 2014 was evaluated comprehensively. The assessment results of both methods show that the Yangtze River to Taihu Lake Water Diversion Project has had a significantly positive effect on the intake area. However, the fuzzy set pair analysis method, which used the fuzzy connection degree to describe the certainty or uncertainty of the evaluation object and evaluation criteria, can provide more information.