中国-东盟热带水果贸易增长波动的实证研究

Dynamic Fluctuations of Tropical Fruits Trade Growth Between China and ASEAN

通过恒定市场份额模型(CMS)分析中国与东盟热带水果贸易增长波动特征。结果显示:二阶效应是中国与东盟热带水果贸易额增长的主导因素,其次是结构效应。中国对东盟热带水果出口结构优势在逐渐减弱,而东盟对中国出口结构优势则在逐渐增强。东盟市场进口规模的扩大对中国热带水果出口增长的拉动作用在逐渐下降,而东盟市场出口规模的扩大对中国热带水果进口增长的拉动作用则在增强。中国与东盟热带水果出口竞争力提高对双边热带水果贸易增长具有重要的拉动作用。据此,提出相关对策建议。

This paper makes use of the constant market share model（CMS model） to periodically analyze tropical fruits trade between China and the ASEAN.The results show that second-order effect is the most important factor influencing tropical fruits trade growth followed by structural effect.Tropical fruits exports structure advantage of China is being weakened,while that of the ASEAN is being enhanced.The pushing effect on the tropical fruits＇ export business in China,caused by the expanded scale of the ASEAN import business,has gradually declined while the pushing effect on the tropical fruits＇ import business in China caused by the expanded scale of the ASEAN export business is being strengthened.The improvement of export competitiveness plays an important role in tropical fruits trade growth.This paper finally put forward some corresponding suggestions.