我国肉鸡供给反应实证研究——基于Nerlove模型和省级动态面板数据

Supply Response Analysis on China's Broiler Sector:Based on Nerlove Model and Provincial Dynamic Panel Data

利用2001—2014年我国省级面板数据,基于Nerlove模型对我国肉鸡供给反应进行实证研究。研究结果表明:我国肉鸡供给在短期内缺乏价格弹性,长期内具有价格弹性;肉鸡生产具有较强的惯性,上一期肉鸡产量对本期产量具有较强的影响作用;产品价格波动程度的增加会导致产量水平的下降;外界突发事件对肉鸡生产的影响远远高于禽流感疫情本身;产业的地理集聚有助于进一步提升肉鸡产量水平。基于实证研究的结论和当前我国肉鸡产业发展形势,提出要建立完善我国肉鸡产业监测预警系统、加强动物疫情监管和危机处理机制等政策建议。

Following the Nerlove model,with the provincial panel data over 2001—2014,this paper empirically studies the supply response of China＇s broiler sector.The results show that the short-run supply response of broiler to price changes is low,while the long-run supply of broiler is highly elastic to price changes.Broiler production has a strong inertia,that is,broiler production of the previous period has a strong impact on this period.An increase in the volatility of price leads to a decline in the broiler production.The impact of unexpected events on the broiler industry is much higher than on the bird flu epidemic itself.The geographical agglomeration helps to enhance local broiler production.