中国服务业具有独立发展的路径依赖吗?

Is Service Sector in China Characteristic of Path-dependence and Developing Independently?

虽然当前中国已步入服务经济时代,服务业对经济增长起主导性作用,但中国服务业占GDP比重与世界平均水平相比依然有一定差距。基于2002-2012年投入产出表的核算结果显示,中国服务部门的服务投入率从2002年的44.33%上升到2012年的55.25%,服务业所需中间投入大多来自服务业本身,即服务业具有独立发展的路径依赖。基于全国30个省市2000-2014年面板数据的实证研究表明,服务业发展很大程度上受自身发展水平的影响,当前人均服务业产值提高1个百分点,会带来1年后服务业人均产值提高0.39个百分点,2年后服务业人均产值提高0.32个百分点。分地区和分行业的稳健性检验也支持了上述结论,且发现东部地区的服务业独立发展路径依赖要高于中部和西部地区,金融业和房地产业的独立发展路径依赖更为明显。中国各级政府在制定服务业发展政策时,不能仅仅提出提高服务业占GDP比重的目标,而应该更好地认识服务业发展过程中的客观规律,引导服务业自我发展。

China is now in its era of service economy, with service sector playing a leading role in economic growth, and yet the share of service sector in GDP is still smaller than the world average.Based on China's input-output table, this study shows that the ratio of service-input(as share of total intermediate input) rises from 44.33% in 2002 to 55.25% in 2012, which means service sector requires intermediate input mostly from the service sector itself, and is characteristic of path-dependence. An empirical study of 30 provinces and municipalities nationwide from 2000 to 2014 shows that the previous development of service sector has a positive effect on current development of service sector with the significance of 1%. The robustness test also supports the above conclusions. It is found that service sector is more prominent in path-dependence in the eastern region than in the central and western regions, so are the financial and real estate industries.When making service policy, the government should consider this rule and encourages the service sector to develop independently.