影响中国非寿险发展的区域社会因素分析

Regional and social factors influencing non-life insurance development in China according to Chinese provincial panel data

2015年中国非寿险保费收入达到7995亿元1),已经成为国民经济发展的重要组成部分。随着中国非寿险整体规模的扩大,各区域的非寿险发展差距逐渐扩大。非寿险区域发展不平衡会制约非寿险长期、持续、健康的发展,因此分析影响各区域非寿险发展的影响因素具有重要的现实意义。本文运用各地区的面板数据分析影响非寿险发展的社会因素,并对比不同区域影响非寿险发展的社会因素的异同。研究结果表明,影响中国非寿险发展的社会因素不仅包括受教育程度、社会保障水平、人为事故等已经被理论界证实的因素,还包括城镇化、就业水平、法律法规、卫生条件等,这些因素都与民生建设息息相关,因此加快民生建设有利于非寿险的持续发展。实证结果也证实影响不同区域非寿险的社会因素有所不同,例如城镇化对东北和南部沿海地区非寿险影响不显著,但对其他地区影响显著;受教育程度对北部沿海和东部沿海地区影响不显著,但对其他地区影响显著。最后,本文以影响各区域非寿险的因素为依据,对不同区域非寿险的发展提出相应的政策建议。

China insurance premiums were 799.5 billion CNY in 2015 and are now an important part of the Chinese economy. Research into the factors influencing non-life insurance involve three fields： the economic factors influencing non-life insurance; factors influencing non-life insurance demands from a national view （but not regional differences） ; and time series data. Here, we analyze non-life insurance demands using regional panel data to compare differences between social factors influencing non-life insurance across provinces. We found that social factors influencing non-life insurance included education level, social security level and traffic accidents. Other social factors also influenced the development of non-life insurance in China, for example urbanization,jobless rate, important rules and medical level. All factors above are important parts of livelihoods and improvements here will have important effects on the persistent development of non-life insurance. Traffic accidents have a negative effect on the development of non-life insurance; strengthening publicity for traffic security and punishment for offences are very important. Laws and rules have a positive effect on non-life insurance and government should introduce laws and rules to improve development of non-life insurance. The social factors affecting non-life insurance vary between nations and regions and policy suggestions vary accordingly. Governments in northwest China should emphasize urbanization construction, compulsory primary education and social security. Governments in northeast China should train more doctors and increase coverage of medical care insurance. Governments in other parts of China should focus on urbanization and fair education resources. Governments along the middle Yellow River and in southwest China need to create more jobs.