贸易开放对中国碳排放影响的门槛效应分析

Threshold Effects of Trade Openness on China's Carbon Emissions

理论机制分析认为,贸易开放会通过经济发展水平、人力资本及环境管制强度等渠道对我国的环境污染产生影响。鉴于此,文章基于全国30个地区1997~2014年的省际面板数据,构建面板数据门槛回归模型,对贸易开放影响我国人均碳排放的门槛效应进行实证分析。研究结果发现,我国贸易开放显著存在人均收入、人力资本及环境管制强度的门槛效应。具体影响机制为:高水平的人均收入有利于发挥贸易的碳排放抑制效应;人力资本越高,贸易开放促进碳排放减少的效果也越为明显,故各地应稳步推进人力资本积累;适度的环境管制强度有利于贸易的污染减排效应,管制过低或过高都将使得贸易增加碳排放。

Theoretical analysis finds that trade openness has impact on pollution via GDP per capita,human capital and environmental regulation. Meanwhile,based on provincial data of china from 1997 to 2014,this paper employs threshold regression to analyze the threshold effect of trade openness on environmental pollution. The results show that there are significant threshold effects of trade on pollution. When income per capita lies in the high stage,trade has significant positive effect on environment,but in lowincome stage,trade will increase pollutant emissions. High level of human capital can also help decrease emissions,so it is im-portant to accumulate human capital accordingly. Moderate intensity of environmental regulation is conducive to the positive effect of trade openness on environment.