制度环境与中国对外直接投资——基于扩展边际的分析视角

Institutions and Chinese Outward Foreign Direct Investment: Based on Extensive Margin

文章基于中国的实际情况提出对外直接投资二元边际概念,并对ALP(2015)二元边际分解模型进行改进,据此测算中国各省域对外直接投资的扩展边际。在此基础上,运用空间杜宾面板模型从扩展边际的角度实证检验母国制度环境对中国OFDI的影响,同时基于资本的跨区、跨国流动替代性机制分析东部、中部和西部三大区域制度效应的差异性。研究发现:第一,中国省域对外直接投资的扩展边际存在显著的空间自相关性。第二,政府的财政扶持和金融支持能促进中国OFDI的扩展边际,而母国知识产权保护制度不健全、法制建设不完善均会导致资本的外逃。中国对外投资的扩展边际同时存在"制度激励"和"制度逃逸"现象。第三,东部、中部和西部制度质量初始禀赋的不同使得部分地区资本的跨区流动对跨国流动形成完全或部分替代,三大区域OFDI的扩展边际因而呈现差异化的制度效应。东部具有更强的制度逃逸特征,中部的制度激励特征则更为明显,但西部这两种特征均未出现。

This article first gives definitions of two margins of OFDI for China and then improves ALP( 2015) decomposition model to calculate the extensive margin of Chinese provincial OFDI. On this basis,we use spatial Durbin panel model to empirically explore the impacts of home institutions on Chinese OFDI,based on the perspective of extensive investment margin. Additionally,we analyze the differences of institution effects in the east,the middle and the west from mechanism of substitutability between trans-regional and trans-national flow of capital. The results show that,firstly,there is a significant spatial autocorrelation among all provinces' extensive margins of OFDI. Secondly,government fiscal and financial support can help promote the growth of Chinese OFDI at extensive margin,while weak intellectual property protection and imperfect legal system in home country will drive out domestic capital. Apparently,the extensive margin of Chinese OFDI has institutional promotion and institutional escape phenomenon. Thirdly,the differences of initial institution endowment between the east,the middle and the west make trans-national capital flow completely or partially replaced by trans-regional flow in some areas,so that these regions' extensive margins of OFDI have different institution effects. The east has more obvious institution-escape feature while the middle shows more evidence on institution promotion. But the west has neither institutional promotion nor institutional escape phenomenon.