跨越中等收入陷阱中全要素生产率的作用及比较

The role of TFP and its international comparison in the process of crossing the Middle Income Trap

文章探讨了全要素生产率在经济体跨越中等收入陷阱过程中的作用,实证研究了不同经济发展阶段下经济体实现TFP增长的路径差异。首先,借助面板有序Logit模型,证实了在经济体跨越中等收入陷阱的过程中TFP起到了关键性作用;其次,构建技术边界收敛模型,进一步探讨了处于不同收入阶段的经济体提升TFP的路径选择。实证研究发现:在低收入、中等收入发展阶段,经济体主要通过效率提升带来的赶超效应和技术进步效应提升TFP,而高收入经济体主要通过自主创新实现TFP增长;技术进步效应的差异将对中等收入经济体提升全要素生产率,进而跨越中等收入陷阱发挥关键作用;中等收入阶段是全要素生产率提升路径的转型阶段,亟需实现由外界驱动向自主创新驱动的转型,方能保证经济体真正进入高收入发展阶段。

This paper discusses the role of TFP in the process of crossing the Middle Income Trap,and empirically studies the differenceof TFP growth path for economies in different development stages. Firstly,by using a panel ordered logit model,it is proved that TFP plays a key role in the process of crossing the Middle Income Trap. Secondly,by constructing a technology frontier convergence model,the paper further explores path selection of TFP growth for economies in different income stages. Empirical study found that in low-income and middle-income stages,the economies mainly depend on the catch-up effect brought by efficiency improvement and technological progress effect to promote TFP,while high income economies mainly depend on innovation to realize the growth of TFP. The difference of technological progress effect plays a key role in improving TFP and then crossing the Middle Income Trap for middle income economies. The middle income stage is the transition phase of TFP growth path,and it is urgent to realize the transformation from external drive to innovation drive for TFP growth,so that the economies can really enter high income stage.