基于LMDI模型的工业废水排放影响效应研究——以浙江省为例

Research about Influence Effect of Industry Polluted Water Based on LMDI Method—A Case Study of Zhejiang Province

运用投入产出法计算2007—2013年浙江省各工业行业工业废水完全排放强度,在此基础上运用LMDI指数分解模型将工业废水流量变化分解为技术效应、规模效应和结构效应,以此来分析工业废水流量变化的规律和行业分布特征。研究结果表明:废水直接排放强度与完全排放强度差异显著,时间序列工业废水排放强度呈现不同程度的下降趋势,排放强度体现的技术效应和各工业行业产值比例体现的结构效应对浙江省工业废水流量呈现出正向减排作用,而规模效应则是工业废水排量增加的最大助推因素。以此结果为根据,提出治污减排的相应政策建议及发展方向。

The paper calculates the grey virtual water emission intensity of each industrial sector in Zhejiang in the period of 2007--2012 through input-output method. Based on the above result, we divide the change of industry polluted water into scale effect, structure effect, and technology effect by using LMDI index decomposition approach to analyze the rule of emission of polluted water and the feature of sector distribution. The research results are as follows： Polluted water emission intensity presents a decreasing trend in different extent with the time-series. Technology effect represented by emission intensity and structure effect represented by proportion of each industrial sector output value is contributed to the decline of polluted water in Zhejiang, while scale effect represented by each industrial sector output value promotes the rise of polluted water. According to the results, the paper puts forward the related suggestions asreference for policy-making.