习惯形成、灾难风险和预防性储蓄——国际比较与中国经验

Habit Formation, Disaster Risk and Precautionary Savings: International Comparison and China's Experience

通过构建连续时间DSGE模型,考虑灾难风险因素和消费习惯形成,采用波形松弛算法,考察对比我国和世界其他7个国家面对灾难风险不确定性时最优消费函数和储蓄率,研究发现:模型拟合效果很好,在模型中融入习惯形成因素后更加稳健;灾难风险已经成为影响消费者消费和储蓄意愿改变的不确定性来源;我国居民面对灾难风险的消费和储蓄改变强于世界其他7个国家,我国居民储蓄意愿也是最高的,储蓄率高达85%;我国的最优消费函数改变比不考虑习惯形成差距变大了,但是世界其他7个国家的最优消费函数改变较前文未考虑习惯形成的差距减小了,我国居民的储蓄意愿仍然最高,储蓄率高达87%,原因是考虑了消费习惯形成,因而面对灾难时消费者会更加惧怕灾难影响其未来生活,从而储蓄意愿增强;政府采取财政补贴比例较小时,政府财政补贴对于抵御灾难风险的效应是非常强的,并且能有效降低消费者储蓄意愿,但政府采取财政补贴比例较大则会适得其反。

By constructing the continuous time DSGE model and considering the disaster risk factors and the formation of consumption habits, this paper adopts the waveform relaxation algorithm to study and compare the optimal consumption functions and savings rates between China and other 7countries in the world in the face of disaster risk uncertainty. The results show that the model fitting effect is good, and the model will become more robust when the habit formation factors are blended in. The disaster risks have become a source of uncertainty affecting the changes of consumer wills of spending and savings. The changes of Chinese residents＇ consumption and savings in the face of disaster risks are stronger than those in the 7 other countries around the world, the savings will of China＇s residents is the highest, with the savings rate as high as 85%. The changes of China＇s optimal consumption function will have a bigger gap if the habit formation is not considered, but the changes of the optimal consumption function of the other 7 countries in the world will have a narrowed gap if the habit formation is not considered. The savings will of Chinese residents is still the highest, with the savings rate up to 87%. The reason is that the formation of consumption habits is taken into consideration, thus when faced with disasters the consumers will be even more afraid of the impact of the disaster on their future life, therefore their willingness to save will be enhanced. If the government provides smaller proportion of financial subsidies, the government financial subsidies will have a very strong effect on resisting the disaster risks, and the consumer willingness to save can be effectively reduced. However, if the government provides larger proportion of financial subsidies, the results will be counterproductive.