贵州省碳排放驱动效应研究及其与经济增长的脱钩关系——基于LMDI分解理论

Driving effect of carbon emissions and its decoupling relationship with economic growth of Guizhou:an analysis based on LMDI method

为了促进贵州低碳经济的进一步发展,以贵州省2002—2013年能源消费结构为基础数据,通过自上而下、LMDI分解法,对贵州省碳排放进行定量测算。在此基础上,利用Tapio脱钩模型,分析碳排放与经济增长的关系。结果显示:贵州省碳排放总体呈持续增长,其中经济因素和人口规模对贵州省碳排放起促进作用,且经济是导致碳排放增加的主要原因;能源结构和能源强度对碳排放起抑制作用,能源强度的降低是促进碳排放减少的主要途径;贵州省碳排放与经济之间主要以扩张负脱钩和弱脱钩状态为主。

On the basis of Guizhou energy consumption structure from 2002 to 2013,we carried out quantitative measuring of carbon emissions of Guizhou with LMDI method,and analyzed the relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth with Tapio decoupling model.The results showed that,carbon emissions of Guizhou kept growing steadily,with economy and population-especially economy-playing an important role in this process.Energy structure and energy intensity had an inhibiting effect on carbon emissions,and reducing energy intensity was the main approach to reducing carbon emissions.In conclusion,the relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth was dominated by intensive negative decoupling and weak decoupling.