贵阳市土地利用变化及驱动因素分析

Land use change in Guiyang and its driving factors

以贵阳市2000年、2005年、2010年土地利用数据为基础,依托Arc GIS、IDRISI等软件平台,分析2000—2010年间贵阳市土地利用变化。从自然、社会经济、可达性等方面选取6个驱动因子,运用Logistic模型,分析贵阳市各土地利用变化驱动因素。研究结果表明:1)10年间,贵阳市土地利用变化显著,建设用地、林地大幅增加,耕地大幅度下降,且耕地是建设用地、林地的主要转入来源;2)2000—2010年,各地类平面重心均发生迁移,建设用地平面重心变化幅度最大,耕地平面重心迁移方向与建设用地相反;3)各地类与驱动因子的Logistic回归模型的ROC值均大于0.75,能很好地模拟土地利用变化与驱动因子之间的关系;4)在喀斯特山区,坡度、高程、距居民点距离对贵阳市土地利用格局的形成及演变有重要作用。

Taking the land use data of Guiyang in 2000,2005 and 2010 as research object,we analyzed the land use change in Guiyang from 2000 to 2010 using Arc GIS and IDRISI.We selected 6 driving factors from natural,social,economic and spatial aspects,and analyzed the driving factors of the land use change with Logistic regression model.The results showed that,the 10 years witnessed significant land use changing in Guiyang.Construction land and forest land increased substantially,while cultivated land decreased and turned into construction land and forest land.The center of gravity of all kinds of land shifted,with that of construction land shifted the most,and the center of gravity of cultivated land moved toward the opposite direction of that of construction land.The ROC values of Logistic regression models of all kinds of land use were more than 0.75,meaning that the models could simulate the relationship between land use change and its driving factors well.In conclusion,in karst mountains like Guiyang,the slope,the altitude and the distance to residential areas have played important roles in the formation and change of land use structure.