河南省产业结构演变的城镇化响应研究

Urbanization Response to the Industrial Structure Evolvement in Henan Province

基于1978—2014年的统计数据,采用城镇化响应强度模型和多元线性回归方法,研究了河南省产业结构演变城镇化响应的时间和空间特征及其影响因素。结果表明:非农产业发展城镇化响应强度呈上升趋势,但第二、第三产业发展城镇化响应具有明显的差异,其中第二产业发展的城镇化响应强度呈现阶段性波动,第三产业发展城镇化响应强度呈"U"型曲线变化趋势;河南省城镇化响应的空间分布具有明显的差异,区域城镇化类型由单一化向多元化发展趋势明显;通过回归分析发现,区域城镇化总体水平、城镇体系发育程度、区域人口承载能力、产业集聚能力、城市经济密度、土地利用强度是影响河南省产业结构演变的主要因素。

Based on statistics from 1978 to 2014,using urbanization response coefficient model and multiple linear regression method,the paper analysed the temporal and spatial characteristics of urbanization response to the industrial development in Henan Province since 1978,and the urbanization response factors was studied. The urbanization response strength to the non-agricultural industrial structure evolution rise on the whole,but there is significant different between the secondary industry and the tertiary industry,urbanization response index of the secondary industry development is fluctuant,but urbanization response index of the tertiary industry showed a ＂U＂shaped curve. The urbanization response in Henan Province has obvious regional difference,there are three main types and six subprime types in Henan Province. And regression results show that regional overall level of urbanization,the level of urban system development,the regional carrying capacity,the level of industrial concentration,the density of urban economy,land use intensity are the main motivations of the industrial structure evolution in Henan Province.