基于可拓理论的四川暴雨灾害风险评估模型

A Risk Assessment Model of Rainstorm Disasters in Sichuan Province based on Extension Theory

为建立四川暴雨灾害风险评估模型,减少灾害的发生,利用1961~2013年四川省暴雨灾害历史资料、高程及2013年四川省统计年鉴资料,基于可拓理论等提出四川省暴雨灾害风险等级评估模型。在建立模型的过程中将四川暴雨灾害风险划分5个等级,并得出暴雨强度、暴雨频次、地形、坡度、人口密度、地均GDP、耕地比例、人均GDP、公路里程数9个评估元素的四川暴雨灾害风险评估参数分级标准。综合关联函数以及层次分析法计算出评估因子的权重系数,分别得到每个等级的综合关联函数,将其计算比较得到单站点暴雨灾害风险等级,建立了新型四川省暴雨灾害风险评估模型。表明四川暴雨灾害的发生是多种因子共同作用的结果,为防止灾害发生,应从多方面改进。

In order to establish the risk assessment model of the rainstorm disaster in Sichuan and reduce the occurrence of disaster, a rainstorm disaster risk assessment model of Sichuan province is established by extension theory based on of rainstorm disaster data and Sichuan Statistical Yearbook 2013 and SRTM DEM which is provided by International Scien- tific ＆ Technical Data Mirror Site, Computer Network Information Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Sichuan rain- storm disaster risk is into five levels. Grading standard of 9 rainstorm disaster risk assessment parameters in Siehuan province is established, including Storm intensity, storm frequency, topography, slope, population density, GDP per ar- ea forecast, the proportion of arable land, GDP per capita, road mileage. According weight and correlation function, the comprehensive correlation function of each level is obtained. Comparing the weight coefficient of each grade, the biggest one is the site of the storm disaster risk level. A new risk assessment model of rainstorm disasters is established. It shows that the occurrence of rainstorm disaster in Sichuan is the result of many factors, which should be improved in many ways to prevent the occurrence of disasters.