国际石油价格波动对我国CPI影响研究

Research on the Impact of International Oil Price Fluctuations on China's CPI

本文对国际石油价格波动的运行轨迹及其趋势进行一定的分析,并在已有研究的基础上,选择具有代表性的布伦特(Brent)石油期货价格和我国CPI指数,通过检验变量的平稳性和协整关系,构建状态空间模型考察了国际石油价格波动对我国CPI的影响效果。研究结果显示:国际石油价格的波动是导致我国CPI指数变动的Granger原因,其对我国CPI的影响效果表现出显著的非对称性。最后,本文有针对性的提出了减缓国际石油价格波动对我国CPI影响程度的政策建议。

This paper to some extent analyzes the running track of the international oil price fluctuations and trends. Based on the existed research, the representative Brent oil future price and China＇s CPI index were selected for research. This paper explored the effect of international oil price fluctuation on China＇s CPI through testing stationarity and cointegration relationship of the variable and building the state space model. The research results show that the fluctuation of international oil price is the Granger cause of China＇s CPI index changes, whose effect on China＇s CPI turned significant asymmetry. Finally, this paper accordingly puts forward policy recommendations to mitigate the impact degree of international oil price fluctuations on China＇s CPI.