基于街道尺度的深圳市手足口病时空扫描分析

A clustering study on HFMD in Shenzhen based on street scale

目的探讨深圳市手足口病(hand,foot and mouth disease,HFMD)时空聚集性特征,为今后制定针对性的预防策略与措施提供依据。方法计算深圳市各街道手足口病发病率,应用回顾性时空扫描统计量分析深圳市2014年1月1日~2014年12月31日基于街道尺度手足口病时空聚集性。结果深圳市2014年手足口病发病例数为49 385例,深圳市街道手足口病的最高发病率达到1 873.00/10万,街道最低发病率为13.44/10万,各街道手足口病发病率差异有统计学意义(x^2=1 289.36,P<0.001)。通过回顾性时空扫描分析发现,2014年深圳地区存在21个聚集区域,共包含了29个街道,疫情出现时间主要集中在5月份,发生时间与深圳市疫情高峰时段相一致。结论时空重排扫描统计量能够有效地显示出手足口病聚集性情况,包括聚集时间段及地域,为以后针对性的开展疾病预防控制工作提供了科学依据和参考。

Objective To explore the spatiotemporal clusters of hand, foot and mouth disease in Shenzhen and provide the basis for future development of targeted prevention strategies and measures. Methods The incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease （HFMD） among different streets in Shenzhen were calculated. Retrospective space-time permutation scan statistics analysis were applied to analyze HFMD reporting data of Shenzhen from January 1 , 2014 to December 31 , 2014. Results In 2014, 49 385 cases of HFMD cases were collected in Shenzhen. Among different streets in Shenzhen, the highest incidence of HFMD was 1 873.00/100 000 and the lowest incidence of HFMD was 13.44/100 000. A total of 21 significant mumps clusters were detected, including 29 streets. All clusters mainly occurred on April to Jun, which were also the HFMD epidemic peaks in Shenzhen. Conclusions Space-time Permutation scan statistics could be used to clearly and fully evaluate spatiotemporal clustering characteristics of infectious disease, and provide more valuable information for the disease control and prevention.