研究与试验发展业的宏观经济效应

Macro-economic Effect of R&D Industry in China

本文使用投入产出模型研究了中国研究与试验发展业的宏观经济效应。研发业的就业效应在服务业中居于中等位置,其劳动报酬系数存在下降态势,对就业的带动能力在减弱。研发业投资回报率较低,产业没有形成内生发展能力,但是营业盈余系数有上升趋势。研发业最终消费系数在服务业中位于较前位置,是促进消费的重要服务业,但对其消费主要体现为政府消费,居民消费很少,其最终消费系数有下降趋势。研发业出口效应较弱,其产出对出口影响较小,但是其对出口影响增强的势头已经形成。研发业进口系数在服务业中居于首位,其对进口依赖较强,对进口依赖较强的态势已经形成,并将在较长时间内保持这种趋势。研发业的出口劳动直接消耗系数和就业乘数都较大。

This paper studied the macroeconomic effect of the R＆D sector in China by the industrial input- output method. It is found that the employment effect of the R＆D sector is in the medium of all service industries, the labor reward coefficient owns a down trend, and the employment function becomes weak. The investment reward ratio of the R＆D sector is small, which does not own the capacity of self-development, but the surplus coefficient owns an up trend. The consumption coefficient of the R＆D sector is in the top of all service industries, which is the important service industry to increase consumption, but the consumption consists mainly of government consumption, but less of resident consumption, and consumption coefficient owns a down trend. The export effect of the R＆D sector is less, the outcome has less effect on export, but the export effect owns an up trend. The import effect of R＆D sector is in the top of all service industries, which depends more on import, owning an up trend to depend more on import, and will keep the up -trend for a long time. Moreover, the R＆D sector owns higher export labor consumption coefficient and export employment multiplier.