新疆南疆经济空间演化格局及驱动力分析

Analysis of County Economic Disparities in South of Xinjiang Based on Entropy Weight Method and ESDA

为缩小区域经济差异,促进南疆乃至全疆经济全面协调发展,以南疆42个县域为研究对象,运用熵权法进行县域综合经济发展水平评价,利用ESDA和GIS空间分析方法进一步分析2000—2013年南疆县域经济时空演化格局。结果显示:在全局空间差异方面,自相关水平从2000年的0.149 2到2013年的0.264 0,自相关水平指数较低,总体呈现上升趋势,说明南疆42个县域经济发展水平存在正相关关系但关系不显著,县域之间的经济联系较弱,县域经济差异有所减小;在局部空间差异方面,经济发展水平较高区始终集中在库尔勒市,经济发展水平较低地区分布面积较广,主要集中在喀什地区与和田地区,县域经济发展水平差异依然显著。基于上述研究成果,对南疆县域经济差异的驱动因素进行分析,从经济发展基础、产业结构因素、社会治安与政策扶持等方面探讨改善南疆县域经济差异现状的解决措施,为当地经济总体规划布局和政策实施提供一定的理论依据。

In order to narrow the regional economic differences and promote the coordinated economy development of southern Xinjiang and whole Xinjiang,42 counties in southern Xinjiang were chosen as the study samples.We used the entropy weight method to evaluate the counties′comprehensive economy development levels;in addition,we analyzed the domain economy temporal evolution pattern based on ESDA and GIS spatial analysis method.The results are as followings.In terms of the global spatial differences,the autocorrelation levels were increasing from 0.149 2in 2000 to 0.264 0in 2013,since the index was at a lower level,the overall upward trend indicated that the level of economy development of 42 counties in southern Xinjiang existed a positive correlation but the relationship was not significant,and the economic ties among the counties were weak,though the economic differences among the counties decreased.In terms of local spatial disparity,the zone with higher levels of economic development had always focused in Korla City,meanwhile,the area with low level of economic development widely distributed,which mainly concentrated in Kashgar and Hotan area,and counties′differences of the level economic development remained significant.According to the results,driving factors to the county economic differences were analyzed,which discuss the measures to resolve the status of county economic difference from four main aspects including basic economic development,industrial structure,social security and policy support and population quality and education level.Therefore,the results would provide a certain theoretical basis for local economic layout of the overall planning and policy implementation.