2009-2015年辽宁省阜新市手足口病流行病学特征分析

Epidemiology of Hand Foot and Mouth Disease in Fuxin of Liaoning,2009-2015

目的分析辽宁省阜新市2009-2015年手足口病流行病学特征,预测手足口病短期趋势。方法采用描述流行病学分析和相关统计分析方法,对阜新市2009-2015年手足口病的流行病学特征进行统计分析。利用2009-01/2016-06的分月手足口病发病数时间序列构建自回归移动平均模型ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)12。结果 2009-2015年阜新市共报告手足口病4 419例,年均发病率为30.72/10万,无死亡病例,全市7个县(区)均出现不同程度的流行,以市区、县为主。时间分布呈单峰型,主要集中在6~8月;年龄以≤5岁儿童为主,集中在散居儿童和幼托儿童;病原类型以EV71为优势病原,柯萨奇A组16型(Cox A16)和其他肠道病毒所占比例接近。结论阜新市手足口病季节性明显,呈周期性流行,市区和县是重点防控地区,不同地区优势病原不同,病原监测尽量采集发病7d内的样本,ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)12模型可用于阜新市手足口病短期预测。

Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of hand foot and mouth disease （HFMD） in Fuxin from 2009 to 2015 and predict the short - term incidence of HFMD. Methods The descriptive epidemio- logical analysis method was used to analyze the incidence data of HFMD in Fuxin from 2009 to 2015. The monthly incidence date of HFMD from January 2009 to June 2016 was analyzed based on the ARIMA （ 1, 0, 0） （0, 1, 1 ） 12 model. Results A total of 4 419 HFMD cases were reported without death in Fuxin from 2009 to 2015, and the average annual incidence was 30.02/105. The cases were reported in all 7 counties, but mainly in urban areas and county. One incidence peak was observed during June to August. The cases mainly occurred in children aged ≤5 years old, and children in and outside child care settings; the major patho- gen was EVT1, while Coxsackievirus A16 and other Enterovirus have similer proportion in all case. Conclu- sion The results indicated that HFMD had the characteristics of periodicity and obvious seasonal variation in Fuxin. The prevention and control of urban area and country needs to be strengthened, and the regional distri- bution of pathogen has certain difference. The testing samples should be collected within 7days of stroke onset, ARIMA （ 1, 0, 0） （0, 1, 1 ） 12 model could be applied in short - term predication of HFMD in Fuxin.