政府自然灾害救济与农业保险市场发展关系研究——基于中国省际面板数据的实证证据

The Relationship between the Government Natural Disaster Relief and the Agriculture Insurance Market——Empirical Evidence Based on the Provincial Panel Data of China

政府救济和农业保险是我国农村自然灾害救助体系中至关重要的两种手段。理论分析表明:政府救济费用增加既有可能引起农民增加投保(汲水效应),也有可能导致农民减少投保(挤出效应)。基于2001至2012年的省际面板数据开展政府救济影响农业保险市场的实证研究表明,在控制各省的上年受灾程度、农业现代化水平和农户受教育水平的基础上,人均农村自然灾害救济费对农业保险保费收入和人均农业保险保费收入均产生显著的汲水效应。进一步引入中央对地方专项转移支付中的救灾支出作为工具变量进行稳健性检验,结果仍然支持实证结论。该研究对我国健全农村自然灾害救助体系,最大限度地减少农民因灾致贫返贫现象具有重要的政策意义。

Government natural disaster relief （GNDR） and agriculture insurance are the two most important tools of the rural natural disaster relief system of China. According to the theoretical analysis, GNDR may have a positive or negative effect （ pump - priming effect or crowding - out effect） on the scale of the agriculture insurance premiums. We explored this issue based on the provincial panel data from 2001 to 2012 of China,and the empirical resuits revealed that GNDR had a significant pump - priming effect on the gross agriculture insurance premium income and agriculture insurance premium income per capita after controlling the effect of extent of disaster, level of agricul- ture modernization and average year of education. Then we introduced the disaster relief expenditure in the special- ized central transfer payment as an instrumental variable into the models to test the stability of the conclusion, and the new results was still supportive. This research is significant for improving the rural natural disaster relief system of China and reduce poverty caused by disasters.