延迟退休对养老保险收支平衡的影响——省域层面基于细分退休群体的精算分析

The Effects of Postponed Retirement on the Balance of Social Pension Insurance:An Actuarial Analysis from the Provincial Perspective by Segmenting the Retirement Community

本文基于养老保险的相关政策以及"老人老办法,新人新办法"的原则,将退休群体划分为"老人"、"老中人"、"新中人"和"新人",建立细分退休群体的养老保险收支精算模型,以江苏省为例,从省域层面研究延迟退休对养老保险收支平衡的影响。研究发现:相对于不延迟退休,延迟退休可以提高养老保险收入,降低支出,但支出差距随着时间的推移呈现先增后减的趋势;延迟退休确实可以推迟养老保险收支缺口出现的时间和降低缺口规模,但无法避免养老保险收支缺口的出现。

We segmented the retirement community into ＂the old＂, ＂the old - middle＂, ＂the new - middle＂ and ＂the new＂ based on the relevant policies and the principle of ＂the old retaining the old system, the new adopting the new system＂. Then we established the social pension insurance actuarial models based on the classification and Jiangsu Province statistics, in order to analyze the effects of postponed retirement on the balance of social pension insurance. We found that postponed retirement could improve the social pension insurance＇ s income and reduce the payout,comparing with the normal retirement scheme, but the payout gap decreased after an initial increase over time. Postponed retirement indeed can put off the occurrence of fund shortage and the scale of the gap, but can＇ t a- void the occurrence of the gap.