地下洞室群现场作业风险分析与向量模型

Risk analysis and vector model of field operation in underground cavern group

为了厘清地下洞室群施工现场作业风险因素间的关联效应,利用AMOS软件构建施工风险影响因素结构方程模型,对已建模型进行验证性因子分析,利用计算得出的M.I值对已构建的模型进行修正。根据所得模型计算出的路径系数和方差,对地下洞室群施工风险因素关联效应进行分析。结果表明:规章制度建设及执行、围岩稳定性、进场设备优良率、工人技术等级、工人逆反心理以及消极作业分别为各风险层次中影响最大的风险因素,且各风险层次间的关联效应表现出耦合关系;现场作业风险因素可分为现场主体因素、现场客体因素和现场控制因素3大类,它们之间成向量关系,以此为基础建立向量模型,可清晰直观地展示3大因素之间的主次关系。

In order to clarify the correlation effect of risk factors in construction field operation of underground cavern group,the AMOS software was used to establish the structural equation model of construction risk influence factors. The confirmatory factor analysis was conducted on the established model,and the obtained calculation value of M. I was used to modify the established model. According to the path coefficient and variance calculated by the obtained model,the correlation effect of the construction risk factors for the project group was analyzed. The results showed that the construction and implementation of rules and regulations,the stability of surrounding rock,the excellent rate of equipments entry into site,the technical level of workers,the antagonistic psychology of workers and the negative operation of workers are the risk factors with the greatest influence in each risk level respectively,and the correlation effect of each risk level shows a coupling relationship. The risk factors of field operation can be divided into three categories,including the field subjective factors,the field object factors and the field control factors,with a vector relationship among them. On this basis,a vector model was built,which can present the primary-slave relationship among the three factors clearly and intuitively.