基于网络流转移分布因子的主动配电网运行风险评估及预警

Operation Risk Assessment and Early Warning of Active Distribution Network Based on Network-Flow Shift Distribution Factor

主动配电网运行风险的有效评估和及时预警是保障其安全稳定运行的重要前提。文章基于复杂网络理论首次提出了网络流转移分布因子,从网络流大小和方向2方面实现了拓扑及参数变化对网络流影响的有效线性近似。考虑拓扑时变性、参数不确定性和用户侧自发电馈电形式的多样性,通过制定归一化的风险指标和线性评估方案实现了基于当前网络状态的运行风险的及时有效评估。以概率性序列计算代替蒙特卡洛模拟,在遍历所有可能的多场景、提高分析准确性的基础上,也极大地提高了计算速率,有利于对系统当前运行状态的及时反馈。风险评估结果的序列表现形式也有利于调度进行重点线路监测和风险指标定制,为主动配电网的运行调整决策提供可靠的评估依据。最后,基于改进的IEEE 33节点系统验证了所提方法的有效性。

Effective operation risk assessment and early warning is an important prerequisite to ensure safe and stable operation for active distribution network. Based on complex network theory, a novel index named network-flow shift distribution factor （NSDF） is proposed in this paper. From aspects of value and direction, NSDF is an effective linear approximation for line network flow variation considering topology and parameter changes. Taking topological time-variation, parameter uncertainties, user-side distributed generation feedback state diversity and current operation state into consideration, a normalized and linear index is raised to realize effective and timely operation risk assessment. Through substituting Monte Carlo simulation method with probabilistic sequence analysis, the operation risk assessment and early warning system proposed in this paper can traverse all possible scenarios accuracy assessmen sessment of risk key line monitoring and risk index customization, thus providing a more reliable basis for decision-making of active distribution network operation adjustment. Finally, simulation results based on IEEE 33 node system verify effectiveness and efficiency of this new method.