当前流动性趋紧的原因及2017年趋势研判

Reasons behind recent liquidity tightening and market trend in 2017

2016年四季度至今，我国金融市场出现流动性明显趋紧的特点。总体来看，这其中既有外部冲击加大的因素，也是货币政策稳中有紧的体现，但根本原因还在于前期债市过度“加杠杆”及委外投资等同业市场存在诸多乱象。在央行“保持流动性基本稳定”这一政策目标的维护下，未来金融体系流动性紧张局面将得到舒缓。但受美联储加息、审慎监管加强等因素影响，2017年资金价格或易升难降。

Ever since the fourth quarter of 2016, the liquidity in China＇s financial market has been significantly tightening, which is, in general, partially attributed to the increased external impact and the ＂prudent and moderately tight＂ monetary policy, yet the root cause lies in the excessive leveraging in the bond market earlier this year and the so-called ＂outsourced investment＂ in the interbank market. Supported by the central bank＇s policy objective of maintaining a ＂basically stable liquidity＂, the liquidity tightening in the financial system may be eased in the future. However, driven by factors including the Fed rate hike and the strengthened macro-prudential regulation, it is more likely for the fund price to go up rather than turn south in 2017.